The Ukrainian war as a lesson for maritime transport

Although the risk of war in the Baltic Sea region is small, it is worth taking a lesson from Ukraine: diverse solutions help to keep supply chains working even in the crisis situations.

The probability of a war in the Baltic Sea is low, but we should still prepare ourselves. Ukraine’s maritime traffic is very different from the traffic in the Baltic Sea and cannot be directly copied. However, the example of Ukraine teaches us that there is no single way to prepare for the risks posed by a maritime war, but with a variety of actions, supply chains can at least partially be kept running.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 had a significant impact on Ukrainian maritime transport. Unfortunately, a large part of the country’s maritime transport statistics has not been made public since 2021. However, information can be found in various reports and in the depths of the internet, and we can examine how Ukraine’s foreign trade by sea has survived the war. In this article, I will not examine the actual military operations at sea.

Ukraine as a maritime country before the war

Before the war, the most significant part of Ukraine’s maritime transport was the export of grain and ore. The rest of Ukraine’s foreign trade was mainly carried out by road and rail. Of these, road transport was the most significant mode of transport in terms of value of goods.

In 2021, a total of 153 million tons of cargo passed through Ukrainian ports and about 10,000 ships called at the country’s ports. About three-quarters of Ukrainian port calls were dry bulk carriers, mainly carrying corn, wheat, iron ore and steel. Container ships and ro-ro ships accounted for only about 7 percent of Ukrainian ship calls each.

Ukraine’s own tonnage has been small in relation to the volume of foreign trade. Both before and during the war, Ukrainian maritime traffic has been handled by ships under flags of convenience, e.g. Liberia, Panama, the Marshall Islands and Malta.

Maritime traffic during the war

Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022. During the war, about 40 merchant ships have been damaged. The most intense phase of attacks on ships occurred in the first two months of the war. Since then, naval warfare has remained relatively low. However, Russia briefly stepped up missile strikes on Ukrainian ports in the fall of 2024 and also in March 2025. Floating naval mines have also been found in the Black Sea, and especially in Ukrainian waters.

After the start of the war, Ukrainian maritime traffic almost stopped, and part of the cargo transports immediately shifted to rail and road traffic. Shortly thereafter, small vessel traffic to Danube ports grew rapidly.

Traffic to Ukrainian seaports resumed after the Black Sea Grain Agreement came into force in July 2022. After Russia withdrew from the Grain Agreement at the end of July 2023, traffic to Ukrainian seaports ceased again for a few months. At the end of 2023, maritime traffic was redirected to the protected corridor of the Romanian coast.

In 2022 and 2023, approximately 60 million tons, or 40% of the volumes transported before the war, were transported through Ukrainian ports. In 2024, maritime traffic volumes increased to almost 100 million tons (65% of previous volumes). Container and ro-ro traffic to Ukraine has been almost at a standstill since the start of the war.

The sea areas of Russia and Ukraine were already defined as war risk areas at the beginning of March 2022, and the price of insurance for ships operating in the area increased significantly. Since Ukraine is a significant grain exporter in the world economy, major ship insurers have been offering war risk insurance for ships and cargo since autumn 2023 at significantly lower than market prices, although still more expensive than in peacetime.

How has merchant shipping been able to function in a country at war?

In summary, the continuation of Ukrainian commercial shipping has been based on five different factors:

1) Rerouting through the ports of other countries: Ukraine has been sending grain by rail, road and barges to Romania’s Danube ports or the seaport of Constanta since May 2022.

2) Agreements: Between July 2022 and July 2023, a so-called grain agreement was in force, to which Russia was also committed.

3) Use of other countries’ territorial waters: Since August 2024, Ukrainian export ships have been sailing in the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria along the coast.

4) Sustainable infrastructure: Damage to Ukrainian ports has been relatively minor despite extensive missile and drone attacks.

5) Reasonable insurance premiums: Low levels of marine insurance offered by foreign ship insurers since autumn 2023.

On a practical level, Ukrainian companies have adapted to the logistics made difficult by the war by using alternative routes (ports in other countries, Danube ports, road transport), attracting drivers from other countries and, above all, by constantly exploring new transportation opportunities.

This opinion piece was previously published in Taltech’s opinion forum Trialoog in Estonian on June 10, 2025.